Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Superest Tuesday

We need to give a nickname to this day.  It is the most important day of the presidential primaries so far.  There are quite a number of delegates that will be awarded tonight.  I wanted to post my predictions for tonight and some bold predictions for tonight that may or may not happen.  I’ll put up my predictions first and you can scroll down to see the bolder predictions.

Democratic Party predictions: It’s important to note that the Democratic Party presidential primary is proportional so unless it’s a blow out in the election, it’s not that important who wins the state.  Keep that in mind because my projections are +/- 3 for each candidate.  There’s not a significant difference in that percentage in terms of the number of delegates awarded.

Florida: Hillary Clinton- 62% Bernie Sanders - 37%
Illinois: Hillary Clinton – 53% Bernie Sanders- 47%
Missouri: Hillary Clinton- 49% Bernie Sanders – 51%
North Carolina: North Carolina – 60% Bernie Sanders – 40%
Ohio: Hillary Clinton – 52% Bernie Sanders – 48%

Republican Party predictions: The Republican primaries are winner takes all in Ohio and Florida.
They’re winner take most in Illinois and Missouri.  They’re proportional in North Carolina.  It’s all very confusing.   At any rate, these are about +/-3% for each candidate, as well.

Florida: Donald Trump – 35%; Marco Rubio-30%; Ted Cruz-20%; John Kasich-8%; others-7%
Illinois: Donald Trump-30%; Ted Cruz-27%; John Kasich-25%; Marco Rubio-15%; others-3%
Missouri: Donald trump-33%; Ted Cruz-31%; John Kasich-21%; Marco Rubio-12%; others-3%
North Carolina: Donald Trump- 40%; Ted Cruz – 35%; John Kasich – 12%; Marco Rubio – 11%; others – 2%
Ohio: John Kasich -42%; Donald Trump-35%; Ted Cruz-18%; Marco Rubio-4%; others-1%
16 Bold Predictions

These predictions I don’t see as particularly likely, although they are plausible, and may contradict what I stated above for my predictions of how the projected votes will go.

1. Marco Rubio drops out of the race tonight.  This seems as the most likely of my bold predictions to happen.  If Rubio fails to win Florida, there’s not a path forward for him as a contender.  Although I’ve heard that he’s one of the most ambitious politicians working right now, I doubt he believes he can still be president if he falters in Florida.

2. Bernie Sanders fails to get above 30% with black voters in Illinois.  This one also seems fairly likely.  If Clinton is to win the Illinois primary, Sanders will most likely have to be below 30% with black voters.  More likely, he would have to get below 25% for Clinton to win.  Since Sanders has failed to get above 30%, even in Michigan, this seems pretty likely.

3. Hillary Clinton sweeps tonight, winning all five states.  This one is probably next in line in terms of chances of happening.  If you believe the polls, she has a very good chance of winning all of the states tonight.

4. Bernie Sanders wins Ohio instead of Missouri.  If you look at the demographics of the state, Ohio is very similar to Michigan which, as we all remember, provided a huge upset for Sanders.  This would also show that the polls were wrong in Ohio, which may be the case.

5. Marco Rubio, with the strength of the Hispanic vote and Miami vote, pulls a yuuuuuge upset over Donald Trump allowing for the possibility of a brokered convention.  If this actually happened, of course Trump would blow up, combined with his predicted loss in Ohio, he would raise hell.

6. Florida is the first state to be called tonight on the Democratic primary.  I shared the demographics on the Facebook page, but 60% of the early votes were submitted by those who are older than 60.  22% of the early vote were submitted by black voters.  Combined with a closed primary and a more diverse electorate, this state will be the first to be called for Hillary Clinton tonight.

7. Bernie Sanders supporters will label Ohio as the south.  Bernie Sanders’s campaign manager Jeff Weaver labeled Hillary Clinton as a regional candidate who can’t win outside of the south.  Either way Ohio goes, the meme around his supporters will be that Ohio was part of the South.

8. Outside of the college towns in Illinois, Sanders best showings in Illinois will be in Lincoln Park in Chicago.  This is one of the whitest parts of Chicago and is also a white flight portion of town.  Sanders should do well, there.

9. Strategic Democratic voters will have an impact on the Ohio primary.  I think it will be pretty slight but I think strategic voters in Ohio are more likely to vote for Trump to continue to disrupt the Republican primaries.

10. Ted Cruz wins a number of delegates in Illinois and Missouri.  Thanks to how the delegates are apportioned in those states, Cruz can pick up a number of delegates without winning the statewide election.  He may do well in the southern part of Illinois and in Missouri.  I think this will help derail the surge of momentum Trump will get.

11. North Carolina is the first state called in the Republican primary.  Although the numbers look pretty close, I think Trump gets out to a pretty big lead in North Carolina and the news outlets call it pretty easy.

12. Sanders supporters will ironically retweet Decision Desk HQ’s tweets calling states for Hillary Clinton.  They called Michigan for Clinton while she was losing and made a number of Sanders supporters angry.

13. We will talk about a brokererd convention a lot tonight.  After Kasich (if my predictions are right) wins Ohio, the news outlets will talk about the chances of a brokered convention on the Republican side.  The chances are still pretty low but instead of 0.0000001% it’s now probably closer to 1%, especially if Trump loses Ohio.

14. Rubio throws his delegates to Kasich.  If Rubio drops out and doesn’t win Florida, I think there will be a deal between John Kasich and Rubio for Rubio to drop the lawsuit in Pennsylvania allowing Kasich to be on the ballot and Rubio will try to move his support and delegates to Kasich.  In exchange, Kasich gives him all the bottled water Rubio could ever drink.  I’m kidding.  I think in exchange Kasich makes a promise that Rubio will be the VP and allow him to release his delegates again if there is a brokered convention.

15. Donald Trump has Ben Carson and Chris Christie show up to his victory press conference and BEN CARSON IS AWAKE. The first part isn’t bold but the second part definitely is.

16. There will be calls for Sanders to drop out and there will be calls that Clinton belongs in jail. After tonight’s primaries, the map gets favorable for Sanders for 2 weeks before going back to Clinton.  Sanders’s next two weeks are filled with fairly small delegate counts.  And just remember this is a game of delegates not states.

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