Monday, May 12, 2014

Primary predictions: Day 2

Two states, tomorrow, hold their primary.  The states are Nebraska.  We'll try to take a look to see who will win these primaries.

West Virginia:

2nd Congressional District: Charlotte Lane (R); Nick Casey (D)
3rd Congressional District: Nick Rahall (D)

Shelley Moore Capito (R); Natalie Tennant (D)

What to watch for: The 2nd Congressional District offers a very competitive Republican Primary.  TEA Party favorite and former Maryland GOP chairman Alex Mooney has the "momentum" and has a fundraising lead over former U.S. International Trade Commissioner and former state legislator Charlotte Lane.  Lane is considered the establishment favorite.  They are running to replace incumbent Shelley Moore Capito, who is running for Senate. Some observers are worried that Mooney's run to the Right will make it harder to beat Nick Casey in the general election.  The Senate primary is pretty boring, Shelley Moore Capito is a near-lock to win the nomination as is Natalie Tennant.


1st Congressional District: Jeff Fortenberry (R)
2nd Congressional District: Lee Terry (R); Brad Ashford (D)
3rd Congressional District: Adrian Smith (R)

Ben Sasse (R); Dave Domina (D)

Jon Bruning (R)

Don Stenberg (R)

Charlie Janssen (R)

Public Service Commission:
Jim Esch (D)

What to watch for: The glorious return of Jim Esch.  This is my one big upset pick as I believe Esch will be able to unseat the incumbent Anne C. Boyle.  The Republican Congressional delegation of NEbraska is being challenged.  Lee Terry is being challenged again this year, but he looks safe.  Unfortunately, Pete Festersen is not running to unseat Terry in the general election.  Most eyes are on Nebraska for the Republican primary for Governor and Senate.  First things first, Sasse has emerged as the favorite to win the Republican nomination.  Shane Osborn who was the initial leader for the seat has fallen to third according to some internal polls leaked by Sasse's campaign.  Sid Dinsdale has emerged as a real challenger to Sasse.  This is mostly due to the negative advertisements flooding the airwaves in Nebraska.  The good life of Nebraska does not appreciate negative advertisements.  I think Sasse will win this election.  The gubernatorial election is even more heated.  Omaha based investor Pete Ricketts is running for the nomination.  Ricketts has earned the endorsement of Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, among others.  I thought, initially, that Ricketts would win the nomination easily.  That was before the last minute campaign of Attorney General Jon Bruning.  Bruning lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2012 due to an influx of outside spending.  Bruning got endorsements from prominent Republicans in Nebraska.  The latest poll I saw has Bruning leading Ricketts.  I think that's how it will stay.  Politics can change very quickly.

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