Monday, May 5, 2014

Primary predictions: Day 1

There are three primaries tomorrow, kicking off an eight week run where there are primaries every week. I'm so excited; I just can't hide it. Anyway, I'm offering predictions for how the primaries will go and a couple things to watch for in each state. Note: I am only offering predictions where at least two candidates are filed.

Indiana:

Congressional Primary:

2nd: Joe Bock (D)
3rd: Marlin Stutzman (R); Justin Kulhne (D)
4th: Todd Gokita (R); John Dale (D)
5th:  David Stockdale (R); Shawn Denney (D)
6th: Lane Siekman (D)
7th: Catherine Ping (R); Andre Carson (D)
8th: Larry Bucshon (R)
9th: Todd Young (R); Bill Bailey (D)

What to watch for: Nothing essentially. The 5th Congressional District offers a decent look at the Republican establishment vs an upstart candidate. You'll notice that I did not pick the incumbent in that district.  The 2nd district primary may give us an idea of how viable it is for Indiana to flip one of its districts blue. The 7th district's Republican primary could be interesting as two former potential candidates are squaring off. The 9th district also gives us an idea if an incumbent Republican will lose in the general election.

North Carolina

Congressional Primary:

1st: Arthur Rich (R); G.K. Butterfield (D)
2nd: Renee Ellmers (R); Clay Aiken (D)
3rd: Taylor Griffin (R)
5th: Virginia Foxx (R); Gardenia Henley (D) I have no idea for this one at all
6th: Phil Berger, Jr. (R); Laura Field (D)
7th: David Rouzer (R)
9th: Robert Pittenger (R)
10th: Patrick McHenry (R)
11th: Tom Hill (D)
12th: Malcolm Graham (D)
13th: Virginia Conlon (D)

Senate Primary:

Democratic nominee: Kay Hagan
Republican nominee: Thom Tillis

What to watch for: Everyone will be watching the North Carolina Republican Senate primary as it is the establishment backed Thom Tillis vs. the TEA Party backed Greg Brannon.  Tillis should be the favorite going into tomorrow.  North Carolina is strange in that if the candidate fails to get over 40% of the vote, there will be a run-off.  Brannon could force a run-off.  Recent polls have been showing Tillis is straddling that 40% mark.  I think Tillis wins tomorrow but fails to get over 40%.  I think he gets about 38% of the vote.  Other than that, you have the 2nd Congressional district with Clay Aiken facing Keith Crisco, Sr.  I think Aiken wins because of his higher name recognition but it is essentially a coin flip.  In the 3rd district, there is Sarah Palin endorsed Talor Griffin attempting to unseat incumbent Walter Jones.  I think due to low turnout, Griffin is able to pull the upset.  The 6th Congressional District has a lot of Republican candidates vying for a seat.  Berger is the establishment favorite but polls are showing he is falling just short of the 40% marker to avoid a run-off. I think Bruce VonCannon comes in 2nd.  There's enough Republican candidates to split the vote keeping Berger from getting the 40%.

Ohio:

Congressional primaries:

1st: Jim Prues (D)
2nd: Ronny Harrison Richards (D)
6th: Jennifer Garrison (D)
8th: John Boehner (R)
10th: Bill Conner (D)
14th: David Joyce (R)

State executive:

Governor: Ed FitzGerald (D)

What to watch for: Ummmmm....some observers of politics are saying that it's important to watch the Congressional primary election in the 8th district to see how Boehner does.  I think Boehner does just fine but I guess it is SOMETHING worth watching.  The other Congressional primary to watch is the 14th.  First-term incumbent David Joyce is being challenged by Ohio House of Representatives member Matt Lynch.  Due to a lot of outside spending on Joyce's behalf, I believe Joyce survives. Ohio, despite being the only state that matters every 4 years, is devoid of challenged Congressional elections.


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