Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Primary election predictions: Day 3

Tomorrow, there is 6 states holding their primaries.  I'm here to give you some crack(pot) analysis and predictions.  That's enough small talk. Let's begin.

Arkansas:

House of Representatives:
2nd Congressional District: French Hill (R)
4th Congressional District: Bruce Westerman (R)

State Executive(s):
Governor: Asa Hutchinson (R); Mike Ross (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Tim Griffin (R)
Attorney General: Leslie Rutledge (R)

What to watch for: The two Congressional primaries with actual challengers should be interesting.  In the 2nd Congressional District, banker Hill is running against state representative Ann Clemmer and Conrad Reynolds.  Hill is outraising the other candidates in the field, thanks to his own wealth.  The 2nd Congressional district will be an interesting election to watch in November as North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays will be the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, in the 4th Congressional district, State House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman is the heavy favorite.  For Lieutenant Governor, Congressman Tim Griffin is running for the Republican nomination.  Leslie Rutledge is my pick for the Republican nomination as Attorney General.

Georgia:

House of Representatives:
1st Congressional District: Buddy Carter (R); Amy Tavio (D)
2nd Congressional District: Vivian Childs (R)
3rd Congressional District: Lynn Westmoreland (R)
4th Congressional District: Hank Johnson (D)
9th Congressional District: Doug Collins (R)
10th Congressional District: Donna Sheldon (R)
11th Congressional District: Barry Loudermilk (R)
12th Congressional District: Rick Allen (R)
13th Congressional District: David Scott (D)
14th Congressional District: Tom Graves (R)

Senate:
David Perdue (R) Note: If Perdue does not win a majority of the votes in the primary, there will be a run-off election. I believe Jack Kingston will come in 2nd.

State executive:
Governor: Nathan Deal (R)
Secretary of State: Doreen Carter (D)

What to watch for: The 1st Congressional District, the 11th, and the 12th Congressional District all feature safe Republican seats where new Republican candidates are running to be the representative of their respective districts.  I think Buddy Carter should be the 1st Congressional District Republican winner but Bob Johnson could play spoiler.  Loudermilk was endorsed by FreedomWorks and the Madison Project.  Barr, a Libertarian, is running to return to Washington as true Libertarians do.  Allen was named by the National Republican Congressional Committee as a candidate to watch.  The Georgia Republican Senate Primary is the election everyone is watching and should be something to watch for.  What to really watch for is how close Perdue gets to the majority mark and who will come in second. I believe Kingston will come in 2nd place but it wouldn't surprise me if Karen Handel comes in 2nd.

Idaho:

House of Representatives:
1st: Raul Labrador (R)
2nd: Michael K. Simpson (R)

Senate:
Jim Risch (R)

Governor:
Butch Otter (R)

What to watch for: I'm being boring and picking the incumbents to hold off challenges.

Kentucky:

House of Representatives:
1st Congressional District: Charles Kendall Hatchett (D)
3rd Congressional District: John Yarmuth (D)
5th Congressional District: Kenneth Stepp (D)
6th Congressional District: Elisabeth Jensen (D)

Senate:
Mitch McConnell (R); Alison Lundgren Grimes (D)

What to watch for: Nothing really. Mitch McConnell will survive the primary challenge from Matt Bevin.

Oregon:

House of Representatives:
1st: Delinda Morgan (R)
2nd: Greg Walden (R); Charles Vulliet (D)
5th: Ben Pollock (R);Kurt Schrader (D)

Senate:
Monica Wehby (R); Jeff Merkely (D)

State Executive:
Governor: Dennis Richardson (R); John Kitzhaber (D)

What to watch for: Oregon's gubernatorial electoral primary.

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