Sunday, January 12, 2014

No Romo: Part 2

I may have been oversimplistic in only looking only at Romo's 4th Quarter Comebacks and Game Winning Drives, in order to try to stop the arguments that he's not clutch.  So, I'm going to look at it another way.

This is an average Romo game. Note: Rate refers to QB rating 

Comp.
Attempts
Cmp%
Yds
Tds
Int
Sacks
Rate
Y/A
AY/A
22.58
34.95
64.6
273.75
1.93
0.94
1.97
95.8
7.8
7.7

I'm going to show you how Romo has done with the scoring margins of 0-7 points, 8-14 points, 15+points.  The table is presented with the scoring margins, in order.

Comp.
Attempts
Cmp%
Yds
TDS
Int
Rate
Y/A
AY/A
20.37
31.40
64.87
239.03
1.5
0.85
92.5
7.61
7.35
17.54
27.38
64.08
228.33
1.79
0.75
100.6
8.34
8.42
16.66
25.87
64.39
206.08
1.66
0.66
99.7
7.97
8.10
The numbers are slightly skewed down because there are some games where Romo was not the starter but appeared in the game, such as a place kick holder, or whatever. But we can see that he's basically the same quarterback in every game.  He's slightly worse in closer games, but not appreciably worse.  In fact, you probably couldn't tell the difference unless you saw the scoreboard.

But, how does Romo do in playoff games?  This is basically, the Romo isn't clutch argument.  Romo did fare poorly in playoff games. He appeared close to his career numbers in Wild Card games but did significantly worse in the Divisional playoff games.  This is not surprising, at all.  On average, teams are much better the deeper you go in playoffs, so you expect worse numbers.  In addition to that, these numbers are only a 4 game sample, so it's unclear how much noise there is in the data.  His numbers in the playoffs compare to his career numbers against the Steelers and Ravens.  Two teams, I might add who are usually playoff contenders during Romo's career.  


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