Wednesday, September 25, 2013

West Virginia: 2014 Senate race

Senator Jay Rockefeller announced that he would retire upon the completion of his 5th Senate term as West Virginia Senator.  The Republican party has been excited for Rockefeller's retirement because West Virginia typically votes Republican.  This Senate race is going to be expensive for both parties; let's take a look at the polls.

Democratic candidates:

Sheirl Fletcher: Member, West Virginia House of Delegates 1998-2002, lost to Joe Manchin in Democratic primary in 2012.

Natalie Tennant: Secretary of State, 2009-present

Tennant is considered the favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Republican candidates:

Shelley Moore Capito: Member, U.S. House of Representatives, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District

While there are other candidates, Capito is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination.

Here are the favorability numbers for Sheirl Fletcher:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Not sure
8
25
66

Natalie Tennant:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Not sure
39
32
30

Shelley Moore Capito:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Not sure
45
36
19

Capito is going to be a formidable foe.  She has high name recognition and respectable net favorability.  Let's take a look at how the head to head match-ups look.

Shelley Moore Capito
54
Sheirl Fletcher
26
Not sure
20
Shelley Moore Capito
50
Natalie Tennant
36
Not sure
14
No offense to Fletcher, but she does not really stand a chance against Capito in a match-up.  The only shot for the Democratic party to retain the seat would be to run Tennant.  Let's take a look to see if she can make up some of that ground.



Democrat
Republican
Independent/Other
Shelley Moore Capito
30
76
54
Natalie Tennant
57
11
28
Not sure
13
13
19
Tennant has a chance.  What needs to be done, is she needs to shore up support with the Democratic party in West Virginia.  Ideally, she wants to get to 75% of the Democratic party vote.  She would also want to get to closer to 40-50% of the Independent votes, if she could.  Those two taken together could give her very competitive numbers to Capito.  

This will be one of the more expensive races in 2014.  

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