Sunday, September 1, 2013

The Main(e) Gubernatorial Race

Maine has a gubernatorial election in 2014 which will pit incumbent governor Paul LePage versus the Democratic primary winner between Congressman Mike Michaud (ME-2) and businessman Steve Woods and Independent candidate Eliot Cutler who ran in 2010.

Here's how their favorability stacks up.

Paul LePage:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/Not sure
39
56
5

Eliot Cutler:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/Not sure
32
35
33
Mike Michaud:

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/Not sure
53
30
17
Don't let the size of the tables fool you.  Mike Michaud looks to be the clear favorite for the gubernatorial election.  Unfortunately for Michaud and Cutler, in a three way race, the following happens.

Mike Michaud
39%
Paul LePage
35%
Eliot Cutler
18%
Not Sure
9%
Governor LePage has a real good shot of winning re-election in the three-way race in the gubernatorial election.  Cutler is clearly pulling votes away from Michaud in the general election.  Consider what Public Policy Polling sees if Cutler was not involved in the race.

Mike Michaud
54%
Paul LePage
39%
Not Sure
7%
There's 2% of people who are clearly torn between voting for Cutler and either Michaud or LePage.  But it looks like the vast majority of Cutler supporters are actually Michaud supporters and only a few are LePage supporters.  Let's dive deeper, ok? Alright.



Democrat
Republican
Independent
Mike Michaud
63
13
34
Paul LePage
9
66
34
Eliot Cutler
19
12
22
Not sure
8
8
10
It's pretty much split along party lines.  Cutler receives most of his support from Democrats and Independent voters.  Michaud and LePage split the independent vote in this scenario and LePage manages to do very well with the Republicans in Maine.  Without Cutler, we see the following.



Democrat
Republican
Independent
Mike Michaud
84
19
55
Paul LePage
11
74
36
Not sure
5
7
9
Without Cutler, Michaud picks up the Cutler voters from the Democratic voters and is able to make a couple of people who weren't sure with Cutler on the ballot to vote for Michaud.  LePage does about the same but picks up a couple of the voters who can't decide with Cutler on the ballot.

Without Cutler, LePage and Michaud essentially split the leftover Republican voters.  But where the real gain is, is from Independent voters.  Michaud picks up almost all of the voters who were supporting Cutler.  It looks as if Maine actually has independent voters out there.  This is actually very interesting.  In my neverending search to find a legitimate 3rd party to run for President, I'm looking to Maine as an example. 

Prediction for 2014 gubernatorial election (subject to change): 

Mike Michaud
42
Paul LePage
38
Eliot Cutler
20


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