Thursday, September 5, 2013

Louisiana Polling

Senator Mary Landrieu has become a top target for Republican attempts to take the Senate away from Democratic control.  Despite President Obama having a fairly terrible overall favorable rating 41/52 in Louisiana, the state was one of the few states where Obama did better in 2012 than he did in 2008.  Senator Mary Landrieu's favorability numbers there is 46/43.  That isn't terrible but it's not great.  Finding the right challenger, would be the ideal direction the Republican party should take.  But it doesn't seem like it's going to be as easy as originally thought.

As they like to do, Public Policy Polling decides to do hypothetical match-ups to see how different challengers would do in these match-ups.  Two of the people that Public Policy Polling decided to test have announced that they will challenge Senator Landrieu.  They are Representative Bill Cassidy and retired Air Force Colonel Rob Maness.  The other person they choose for the match-up is current Lousiana State Senator Elbert Guillory.  So what are their favorability numbers? Cassidy (24/27), Maness (6/25), and Guillory (17/23).

In Louisiana, there are the jungle primaries.  During these jungle primaries, could have three or four Republican challengers, in addition to Landrieu.  The top two, regardless of party go onto the general election primary, provided that nobody receives over 50% of the vote.  How does everyone fare in the jungle primary?

Bill Cassidy
20
Elbert Guillory
6
Mary Landrieu
47
Rob Maness
2
Undecided
25

Despite Landrieu's so-so favorability numbers, she might not even need to get out of the jungle primary.  Well, let's take a look.



Democrats
Republicans
Independent/Other
Bill Cassidy
10
33
21
Elbert Guillory
2
10
5
Mary Landrieu
78
18
30
Rob Maness
0
5
1
Undecided
10
34
42

It seems unlikely that Landrieu will be able to get enough support to get to over 50% in the jungle primary.  I shouldn't say it's unlikely but it would require Landrieu to get the rest of the undecided Democrats, which seems likely, and a couple more of the Republicans or Independents who are undecided.  It's possible but I don't think it's extremely likely.

State Senator Guillory has not announced his candidacy, yet.  So let's take a look at what will happen if Guillory did not run.

Bill Cassidy
24
Mary Landrieu
48
Rob Maness
5
Undecided
23
Based on political party, we have the following numbers.



Democrats
Republicans
Independent/Other
Bill Cassidy
10
41
23
Mary Landrieu
76
20
31
Rob Maness
4
8
4
Undecided
10
31
42
Without Guillory, Maness makes up a lot of ground, stealing the 2% of the Democratic Guillory supporters, and 2% of Landrieu's supporters.  Among Republican supporters, Landrieu picks up 2% and Cassidy picks up 8% without Guillory.  Independent or other voters don't change that much without Guillory, but Maness gets most of the support that was from Guillory.  Without Guillory, there's a slightly better chance that Landrieu escapes having to go into a general election.

Either way, the most likely scenario is for Landrieu to face Cassidy in the general election.

Bill Cassidy
40
Mary Landrieu
50
Not Sure
10
How do each of the candidates fare in either political party?



Democrats
Republicans
Independents/Other
Bill Cassidy
16
65
49
Mary Landrieu
77
23
35
Not sure
7
12
16
So, Cassidy fares better with the Independents or other party members than Landrieu.  If Cassidy can shore up support with the Republican party and increase his lead with the Independents, he stands a very good chance to defeat Landrieu in 2014.  So, who should he be targeting?



Male
Female
Bill Cassidy
43
36
Mary Landrieu
46
55
Undecided
12
9


White
African-American
Other
Bill Cassidy
53
10
27
Mary Landrieu
34
86
67
Bill Cassidy
14
4
5
It appears that Cassidy should be targeting white males.  Or maybe he should be targeting males in general.  This is not too surprising.  Shoring up the base by Senator Mary Landrieu should be fairly easy.  If I was on her team, I'd focus on the right's "war on women" and focus how the right is disparaging minorities, too.  Cassidy can turn this around, too.  He can make this a national election and focus on votes that Landrieu supported the President on.  The most dangerous thing for him is having an extended battle with the other Republicans during the primary.  This could ensure that Landrieu escapes the primary with over 50% of the vote. 

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