Monday, April 29, 2013

Replacing John Kerry

There is a special election primary in Massachusetts tomorrow to fill  John Kerry’s Senate seat.  I’ve focused most of my attention of special elections on South Carolina’s first Congressional District but maybe we should talk about this special election primary, too.  The primary is for both the Democratic and Republican party.  Being that this is Massachusetts and there’s not a real strong Republican bench behind Scott Brown, the winner of the Democratic Party primary will most likely be the next Senator from Massachusetts.  Of course, they’ll have to run again in 2014, if they want to keep the seat, but oh well.
The two vying for the Democratic nomination are both current members of the House of Representatives.  They are Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch.  Markey is one of the most liberal members of the House and Lynch is the opposite, being a Conservative Democrat who is pro-life.  Markey is currently leading, according to polls, RealClearPolitics averages the lead to about 17 points.  There was a leak from the Lynch campaign that showed that he was trailing Markey by only 6 points.  That’s probably not a good sign. 
Meanwhile on the Republican side, there are three people trying to win the Republican nomination.  They are businessman Gabriel Gomez, former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan, and state Representative Dan Winslow.  Gomez looks to be the favorite for the nomination as he is a moderate Republican and the story surrounding him is quite perfect.  Additionally, as a political outsider, he will generate more appeal.  Gomez leads by about 6 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
In a head to head match-up pitting Markey against Gomez, Markey is currently leading by about 18 points.  This is consistent with how well Markey is doing against all of the various Republican candidates.   

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