Monday, April 29, 2013

Prediction for the primary tomorrow

This is my guess as to about how it will turn out tomorrow in Massachusetts.
% of vote
Stephen Lynch
Ed Markey

% of vote
Gabriel Gomez
Mike Sullivan
Dan Winslow

It definitely will not come out that evenly.  I simplified my guess to make the numbers round and thus more memorable.  This will bite me in the ass if I am horribly wrong.
On the Democratic side, I expect Ed Markey to beat Stephen Lynch by anywhere from 10-15 points.  Lynch's best shot of making it closer is to really "get out the vote" in working class neighborhoods and areas.  As it stands, Markey should be considered the heavy favorite.  That being said, candidates who have to rely on a get out the vote campaign do better in primaries/special elections because it is a lower overall turnout.  This could shorten the lead from Markey, but I don't expect it to be so much that Lynch wins.
As for the Republicans, there have only been two polls out there that looked at the Republican primary.  The latest poll has Gomez up 33-27 over Mike Sullivan, with Dan Winslow receiving 8% of the votes.  That means about 40% of the primary electorate had not decided who to vote for yet.  Gomez had been doing better as we got closer to the election and I expect it to carry over to the primary.  I would not be that surprised if Sullivan ends up winning the nomination.  In my effort to round the numbers, I may have exaggerated the lead.  I think it is likely that Gomez wins the nomination because of his more impressive favorability numbers (relative to Sullivan and Winslow) and seems to be gaining steam as we approach the primary.
I'll update with a new post tomorrow as we get results from the election.

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