Monday, April 29, 2013

New Hampshire polls


I'm behind on a lot of polls. I'm hoping to correct that, this week. The most recent poll that Public Policy Polling has done is in New Hampshire. So, let's start there.

2014

There is a gubernatorial election in 2014. According to this poll, first term Democratic governor Maggie Hassan looks like an early favorite for re-election if she decides to run. Hassan's favorability is 50/31. She leads the potential Republican challengers by 14-20 points. It's not really that exciting. The closest challenger to her is former Congressman Jeb Bradley, she leads Jeb 52-38, though. The only thing that potentially would stop Hassan from winning re-election at this point is her decision not to run.

2016

Senator Kelly Ayotte has been mentioned as a possible presidential contender in 2016. She was also mentioned as a potential vice-president nominee for Mitt Romney. Ayotte is a Tea Party favorite who won her Senate seat in 2010 during the wave of the Tea Party during the mid-term election. Her favorability has fallen in recent months, it now stands at 44/46. In a hypothetical match-up of a 2016 ballot between Ayotte and Governor Hassan, Ayotte trails ever so slightly 46-44 with 10% unsure.


The reason for this drop is, most likely, explained in this poll, too. 75% of New Hampshirians support requiring background checks on individuals who purchase guns at gun shows. When asked how Senator Ayotte's vote against the Manchin-Toomey amendment, affected their potential votes for Ayotte, 23% said they were more likely to vote for Ayotte than before, while 50% said they were less likely to vote for, and 25% said that it would make no difference. 39% of Republicans said they were more likely to vote for her, while 41% said it doesn't make a difference. With Democrats, 10% said they were more likely to vote for her now, compared to 79% who said it was less likely. With the important Independent voters, 23% said that they were more likely to vote for her because of the vote on Manchin-Toomey, 50% said they were less likely to vote for her. While 2016 is a few years away, this is certainly a situation worth monitoring.


2016 Presidential Election


Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite in New Hampshire to be the Democratic nominee in the 2016 presidential election. 68% of Democratic primary voters selected Hillary Clinton as the nominee in a nine-way choice. If Clinton decided not to run, the next choice would be Joe Biden. When asked who would you like to see as the Democratic Presidential nominee if Clinton did not run, 44% of Democratic primary voters selected Biden. If Clinton and Biden both decided not to run, Democratic primary voters are not sold on any candidate, really. 30% selected an option of not sure/someone else. But the names to monitor if New Hampshire is any indication is Andrew Cuomo (23%), Elizabeth Warren (22%), and Deval Patrick (17%). Cuomo and Patrick are doing better with the moderate to conservative part of the Democratic primary voters while Warren appeals to the more liberal members.

Meanwhile with Republican primary voters, Rand Paul (28%) and Marco Rubio (25%) are the two favorites to run for president in 2016, with Chris Christie (14%) a distant third. No other candidate garners more than 7% of the votes by Republican primary voters. Public Policy Polling notes in their blog that Christie has actually fallen in New Hampshire while Paul and Rubio have gained steam. Not surprisingly among those who vote in the Republican primary who classify themselves as Independent/Other, Paul is the favorite. Both ends of the spectrum, both very liberal (65%) and very conservative (35%) Republican primary voters favor Paul. Rubio stands his ground with very conservative (30%) but the somewhat conservatives (31%) is what is driving his popularity. Christie (32%) gets a plurality of the moderate Republican primary voters, which doesn't bode well for Christie's primary chances.


But Hillary Clinton is so popular in New Hampshire, that it likely doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is. Clinton leads Paul 52-41 and Rubio 52-38.


Miscellaneous

In 2009, New Hampshire signed a bill that legalized same sex marriage in the state. There has been some talk about repealing said law. It doesn't look, at least according to this bill, that it's going to happen. 56% of New Hampshirians think that same sex marriage should be allowed compared to 34% who say it should not be allowed. 17% of New Hampshirians have said that the legalization of same sex marriage has made a positive impact on their life while 16% have said that it has impacted their life negatively. 67% of people say that it has not impacted them, at all.

Crosstab fun

Since there isn't any racial demographics, really, in New Hampshire or much fun with the cross tabs of the poll. I'll look at one more thing from the poll.  Sometimes political pundits will talk about how a female candidate appeals to women voters.  So, in New Hampshire Barack Obama has a favorability of 61/38.  Democratic governor Maggie Hassan has a 57/23 favorability among women.  Senator Kelly Ayotte has a 38/50 favorability among women in New Hampshire.  How do Republican males do?  Well, Jeb Bradley has a 22/40 favorability, Ted Gastas (10/28), Frank Guinta (27/49), Kevin Smith (10/22), and Chris Sununu (31/45) all have negative net favorability, most higher than Ayotte although Smith and Sununu are essentially the same.  What does this mean?  Probably nothing other than New Hampshire women tend to be more liberal.

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