Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Poll time: South Carolina's 1st Congressional District

With the run-off election for the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, quickly approaching, Public Policy Polling did a poll of the 1st Congressional District to see where the races stand at this point.

Well, where do we stand?

Let's start with this:

This is a Republican leaning district.  Barack Obama's approval rating is 41/57. 

Despite this, Democrat sister of genius satirist Elizabeth Colbert Bush leads Republican hiker Mark Sanford 47-45.  Colbert Bush is tied with Curtis Bostic at 43.  Colbert Busch (45/31) is seen more favorably than Sanford (34/58).  Even with Republicans, he's not immensely popular.  His favorability is 55/40.

Sanford leads Bostic in a head to head matchup 53-40 at this point.  But only 77% of voters have heard of Bostic while 95% have heard of Sanford.  Among those who have heard of Bostic, he only trails Sanford 49-46.  This suggests that Bostic could overtake Sanford if he closes the name recognition gap but unfortunately for Bostic, he doesn't have much time left.

The question for the general match-up is will the Republicans who do not like Sanford vote for him in a general election.  Those who are undecided in a Sanford vs. Colbert Busch matchup overwhelmingly voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election (77/12).  They might be inclined to vote for Colbert Busch or stay at home in the general election if Sanford is the nominee.  If Sanford becomes the nominee and he shores up his Republican base, then he would likely win.

Sanford's wife would have been a much better selection for the Republican nominee.  Her favorability is 55/18.  She has high marks among Republicans (57/15), Independents (54/16), and Democrats (53/24).

My man-crush Stephen Colbert's favorability in the district is 34/27.  Newly appointed Senator Tim Scott's approval rating is quite high (53/26) which makes him more popular than Governor Nikki Haley (41/45) and Senator Lindsey Graham (40/44). 

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