Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Mark Sanford's Second Second Chance

South Carolina's 1st Congressional District's special election primary was on Tuesday.  My prediction was as follows:

Elizabeth Colbert Busch >65%
Ben Frasier ~30%

Mark Sanford 33%
Larry Grooms 17%
John Kuhn 16%
Curtis Bostic 11%
Teddy Turner 10%
Chip Limehouse 8%
Others ~5%

Well, how did I do?  According to Politico, with close to 100% reporting, we can see that.

Elizabeth Colbert Busch 95.9%
Ben Frasier 4.1%

Mark Sanford 36.9%
Curtis Bostic 13.2%
Larry Grooms 12.4%
Teddy Turner 7.9%
Andy Patrick 7.1%
John Kuhn 6.5%
Chip Limehouse 6.1%
Others: 9.9%

Did I learn anything?  Yes.  Don't underestimate the power of a candidate who appeals to evangelical Christians in a low turnout election.  It's certainly possible that Sanford loses the run-off election in April but as he hovers over 35% he will be tougher and tougher to beat.  Bostic could make it difficult for Sanford.

Colbert Busch will be able to save up money and face while Sanford and potentially Bostic duel it out over the next couple of weeks spending valuable money and resources.  These duels could also shine a negative light on either of the candidates.

Apparently, if the margin is less than 1% then there is a required recount.  This could severely hamper whoever ends up in 2nd place in terms of mounting a serious effort to beat Sanford.

Likely, we'll see Sanford match up against Colbert Busch in May, in a leaning Republican district.

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