Monday, February 18, 2013

Republican Presidential Power Rankings

Finally! The long anticipated return of the Republican Presidential Power Rankings!  How much fun is it going to be?  This should explain it.

The front-runner(s):

1. Marco Rubio- Rubio gave the Republican response to Barack Obama's state of the union speech.  Analysts were quick to point out that Rubio was the choice to be a bridge to Latino voters.  The speech was also in Spanish so that more Latino voters would be able to see it.  But is that accurate?  Well, we have polls measuring favorability for most of the 2016 candidates from Public Policy Polling.  His favorability from the poll released in January among Hispanic voters was 51/27.  But in the February one his favorability declined to 44/49.  He's running out of room among those who don't know him.  But the truth is, the people who do know him, just don't like him.  His favorability increased by 4 among white voters.  So why is he a favorite?  Well, let's look at where he's improving according to the ideological cross-tab.  His favorability is growing among the very conservative.  Among them, his favorability has increased 6 points.  While among moderates, it fell 3 points.  Among somewhat conservatives, it also fell 3 points.  It's likely that Rubio's popularity will increase by the time the next favorability polls are put out because of his response to the state of the union, the Time magazine article, and his impact on the "Gang of Eight."  22% of Republicans want him to run in 2016. Meanwhile, I hope his house sells with all the publicity.
Note: Apparently, there is some doubt among people that Rubio is not eligible to be the president.  One would assume that birthers who doubt that Barack Obama is eligible to be president would hold the same baseless reservations.  But oh well.

2. Chris Christie- Christie, somewhat surprisingly, is the #1 person on my Democratic Presidential Power Rankings.  I think it's somewhat likely that Christie runs as a real 3rd party candidate.  His favorability is fairly hight, all over.  33/33 among those who are very liberal.  That has fallen 12 points in a month.  But his favorability is falling all over there, according to polls.  Among the somewhat liberal, it fell 15 points.  It fell 14 points among moderates.  But if you look at those more likely to be Republican, the somewhat conservative or the very conservative, you see a slight uptick.  It went up 6 points among somewhat conervative but fell by 3 points among the very conservative.   His favorabilty has remained constant with Republicans.  His unfavorability fell by 6 points among Republicans.  But his favorability among independents has fallen 13 points.  If the Republican party is serious about going after the Latino vote, maybe they should look at Christie.  Christie's favorability among Hispanics is 59/24.  But please.  Keep saying Rubio will appeal to Latino voters.  It's not lazy, at all.

The Tea Party response:

3. Rand Paul- Paul recently declared that he wouldn't make any decision about running in 2016 until 2014.  Paul gave the official Tea Party response to the state of the union.  Paul let people know that his and Rubio's speeches were complementary as opposed to really different.  Paul has mentioned frequently that Republicans have to say more to combat Barack Obama's speeches of giving freee things to people.  But Paul's overall favorability is trending upwards.  It went up 3 points while his unfavorability went down 5 points.  Among moderates, Paul has increased his favorability by 2 points while his unfavorability has gone down 7 points.  Those who are somewhat conservative, his unfavorability increased by 4 points while his favorability stayed the same.  Among the very conservatives, his favorability increased by 3 points but his unfavorability increased by 6 points.  He is likely to improve upon his favorability after the Tea Party response.  As he decided to repeat a popular Republican myth in it.

The evangelicals' response:

4. Mike Huckabee- Huckabee came under fire before the last favorability numbers were released.  Well, mainly by those who weren't evangelical Christians.  Huckabee repeated an idea that the reason we have school shootings is not because of gun violence, but because God is not allowed in school.  This was popular among the very conservatives.  His attack on Barack Obama's organizing for action must have gotten some favorable numbers, his overall favorability is positive now, at 42/38.  At last check, it was 34/46.  He is becoming even more popular among very conservatives.  His favorability with them is at 82/7.  It was 70/12.  Wow.  Huckabee is becoming more and more popular with his favorite constituent.  His favorability among Latinos is 41/42.  Which is fairly consistent with most Republicans.

There's something about Florida:

5. Jeb Bush- Bush becomes the 2nd Floridian on this list.  Bush's net favorability among Latinos (favorability-unfavorability) is +8 which is higher than almost all other Republican candidates.  Bush has a book coming out soonish.  It will likely him even more popular.  Some people have said that it is quite strange that Rubio made immigration remarks for the "Gang of Eight" without consulting with Jeb first.  To me, this signals that Rubio is trying to step out on his own and become the leader in the clubhouse for the presidential nomination.  Bush hasn't made any remarks about wanting to run in 2016, as far as I know.  Surprisingly, Bush does well with the somewhat conservative (52/12) and very conservative (63/16) crowds.  I'm surprised that Bush does so well with the very conservatives considering some of his stances.  But I imagine, he is gaining partly on his name.

The favorite non-contender(s):

6. Paul Ryan- People keep saying that Ryan is a favorite for the 2016 nomination.  His favorability is increasing, now it's 44/41.  This gives some credence to that statement.  At some point, I'll have to mention in a much longer post why Ryan should not be considered a favorite for the presidential nomination.  But I'll leave that for a longer post.

7. Rick Perry- Even though most people in Texas don't want Perry to run in 2016.  Even though if Perry ran and Hillary ran, there's a very good chance that he would lose the vote in Texas.  Even though Rick Perry probably wouldn't be able to get re-elected as governor in Texas.  Even though, all of this, people will mention Perry as a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.  Well, his favorability is trending upwards.  Overall, it's 26/41.  Almost all of his support comes from the very conservative (55/13) which would bode slightly well if he decided to run in the Republican primary.  But moderates (15/54) hate him and even the somewhat conservatives (33/27) don't give him that good of a chance.

The stop being stupid contender:

8. Bobby Jindal- Somehow, despite being the Republican superstar a few years ago, Jindal doesn't have great name recognition.  His favorability is slowing upwards.  His net favorability is -3 up from -5 last time.  Jindal made some comments about how the Republican party should stop being the stupid party.  Did it affect anything?  The effect was almost non-existent.  His net favorability among somewhat conservative declined to +19 from +20.  With very conservatives, his net favorability also decreased by 1 point.  Apparently, his statements don't mean much.  OR it's balanced out by his idea to eliminate the income tax. 

Random Republican governors:

9. Bob McDonnell- Does anyone know who McDonnell is at this point?  It's becoming more and more likely that McDonnell decides to run for Senate in 2014 as opposed to the presidency in 2016.  McDonnell wants to eliminate the state tax on gasoline.  Which he would balance out by increasing the sales tax.  Which Republicans oppose if Democrats propose sales taxes.  But if Republicans want to increase sales taxes to eliminate the income tax or the gasoline tax, Republicans like it.

10. Scott Walker- Walker has gotten some mention as being a potential vice-president candidate for Paul Ryan.  Which while it's unconstitutional, it would probably be unpopular.  Walker might be mentioned by some, it seems increasingly unlikely that Walker would be electable enough on a national scale to be elected as President.  But he could certainly show up in the Republican primaries. 

No comments:

Post a Comment