Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Predicting Presidential Tickets: Part 2

So, last time we looked at what vice-presidents were doing before they were nominated as vice-presidents. Now, we're going to take a look to see what presidents were doing before they won the nomination. What we're looking for is patterns to help us predict who might get the nominee in the future.

For the purposes of gathering data, it's the same categories as last time with the added section of vice-president. For this collection of data, you get an 8 year gap between your last elected position before becoming an at-large candidate.

Congressman (1)

1976 Republican Nominee: Gerald Ford. Ford was not elected to the role of Vice-president or President. Hence I label him as a Congressman. That was his last elected position. He was a Republican Congressman from Michigan prior to being appointed as vice-president.

Senator (7)

1960 Democratic Nominee: John F. Kennedy. Kennedy was a Senator from Massachusetts when he ran for President in 1960.

1964 Republican Nominee: Barry Goldwater.  Goldwater was a Senator from Arizona prior to stepping down to run for the presidency.

1972 Democratic Nominee: George McGovern. McGovern was a Senator from South Dakota prior to running for President against Richard Nixon.

1996 Republican Nominee: Bob Dole. Dole ran unsuccessfully with Gerald Ford in 1976 as his vice-president. Dole ran in 1996 against Bill Clinton and lost. He was a Senator from Kansas at the time.

2004 Democratic Nominee: John Kerry. Kerry was a Senator from Massachusetts when he secured the Democratic nomination in 2004.

2008 and 2012 Democratic Nominee: Barack Obama. Obama was a Senator from Illinois when he won the presidency.

2008 Republican Nominee: John McCain. McCain is a Senator from Arizona. He ran for the presidency and lost to fellow Senator Barack Obama.

Vice-president (7)

1948 Democratic Nominee: Harry Truman. Truman was vice-president when Franklin Roosevelt died in office. This made him President. He was a Senator before he became vice-president. Truman was the last President not to have earned his college degree.

1960 Republican Nominee: Richard Nixon. Nixon was the vice-president for Dwight D. Eisenhower when ran for the presidency in 1960. After losing the presidency in 1960, he campaigned for other Republicans in the years between 1960 and 1968. He was a Senator prior to being the vice-president.

1964 Democratic Nominee: Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson was Vice-president when Kennedy was assasinated. Johnson assumed the presidency and ran for re-election in 1964.

1968 Democratic Nominee: Hubert Humphrey. Humphrey was Johnson's Vice-president. Prior to becoming the vice-president, he was a Senator from Minnesota.

1984 Democratic Nominee: Walter Mondale. Mondale was the Vice-president to Jimmy Carter. He was a Senator prior to being the Vice-president.

1988 and 1992 Republican Nominee: George H.W. Bush. Bush was Ronald Reagan's Vice-president. Prior to being a Vice-president, his last elected position was as a Congressman.

2000 Democratic Nominee: Al Gore. Gore served as Clinton's Vice-president. Before that, he was a Senator from Tennesse..

Governor (8)

1948 Republican Nominee: Thomas Dewey. Dewey was Governor of New York when he ran for President.

1952 and 1956 Democratic Nominee: Adlai Stevenson. Stevenson was the Governor of Illinois prior to running for the presidency in 1952. He was out of office in 1953. He ran in 1956, too. Almost ran in 1960, too.

1976 and 1980 Democratic Nominee: Jimmy Carter. Carter was Governor from Georgia when he ran for the Presidency in 1976.

1980 and 1984 Republican Nominee: Ronald Reagan. Reagan was Governor of California prior to running for the presidency in 1976. After losing to Ford in the primaries, Reagan stayed in the spotlight with the Ronald Reagan Radio Commentary Series.

1988 Democratic Nominee: Michael Dukakis. Dukakis was Governor of Massachusetts when he ran for the Presidency in 1988.

1992 and 1996 Democratic Nominee: Bill Clinton. Clinton was Governor of Arkansas when he ran for the Presidency and captured my heart.

2000 and 2004 Republican Nominee: George W. Bush. Bush was the Governor of Texas when he won the presidency in 2000.

2012 Republican Nominee: Mitt Romney. Romney was the Governor of Massachusetts from 2003-2007. He ran unsuccessfully in 2008 for the Republican nomination and lost the presidency in 2012.

At-Large (2)

1952 and 1956 Republican Nominee: Dwight D. Eisenhower. Eisenhower was, of course, a general during World War II and a NATO Supreme Commander prior to running for President.

1968 and 1972 Republican Nominee Richard Nixon: After losing the presidential election in 1960, Nixon campaigned for other Republican nominees in the intervening years. He eventually ran for President again in 1968 and won.

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