Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Polling in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling did some polling in its home state.  As usual, they did some Senate polls and some hypothetical matchups to see what 2014 might look like.

North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan is up for re-election in 2014.  She seems to be fairly safe at the moment but a lot can change by 2014.  She doesn't have great favorability numbers.  She actually has fairly low numbers.  Her favorability is 39/38.  Hagan leads all of the Republican candidates in hypothetical matchups anywhere from 5-15 points.  By and large, this lead is because of her greater name recognition.

Only one Republican candidate has name recognition of 50% or more.  That is Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, at exactly 50%.  Her favorability is 31/19.  Currently, she trails Hagan 46-38 in a hypothetical matchup.  Among Republican primary voters, Berry is the current favorite leading all candidates with 18% of the support.

In second place is House Representative Virginia Foxx.  She has 16% of the support of GOP primary voters.  Foxx's favorability is 20/29 which is not very good, after all.  She trails Berry in a matchup 48-38. 

Third place is a tie between House Representative Patrick McHenry and House Representative Renee Ellmers at 10% each.  McHenry poses the best challenge to Berry at this point with only trailing 45-40.  His favorability is 18/24.  His name recognition is not very strong and he's already posing a significant challenge. Ellmers's favorability is similar with a 16/25 mark.  She trails Hagan by 9 points, 47-38. 

Hagan's favorability numbers are not high enough to suspect that this Senate seat is safely Democratic in 2014.  Even with less than 50% for name recognition, McHenry is within 5 points of the incumbent.  A lot depends on the landscape in 2014, but if Republicans can get their name out over the next year, it seems likely that there will be a Republican Senator from North Carolina in 2014.

No comments:

Post a Comment