Thursday, February 21, 2013

Louisiana loves polls

Public Policy Polling did some polls in Louisiana.  They found some interesting things.

Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu seems to have recovered from her decline in popularity in the state from Obamacare.  Landrieu's approval rating is net positive.  Her ratings are 47/45 compared to her numbers in 2010 (41/53). 

Jindal who is nearing the end of his 2nd term as governor of Louisiana must find something else to do wtih his time besides angering those on the right.  Some have speculated that he might want to run for Senate in 2014.  If he does, he might have a hard time unseating Landrieu.  As polls find him trailing 49/41.  While Jindal was once one of the most popular governors in the country, he has swung the other way now.  His approval is 37/57 now.  Even if Jindal could run for governor, again, he might not even win. 

Surprisingly, Landrieu doesn't face many challenges in Red Louisiana.  The closest candidate in these hypothetical matchups is lieutenant governor Jay Dardenne who trails 46/43.  Dardenne might be stronger than I'm giving him credit for as his favorability is 41/23.  It's positive among Republicans and Democrats.  Most of the candidates tested don't have strong name recognition, so it's possible that the race would tighten up as they earn their recognition.  But Landrieu is close to 50% in her matchups and it's unclear if any of the stronger canidates are going to run.

2015 could be a fun year for the gubernatorial election in Louisiana.  New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu is seen pretty favorably statewide 49/26.  In a hypothetical matchup with Republican Senator David Vitter (46/38) the two would be tied at 44.  Against the Lieutenant governor, Landrieu would be up 44-42.  A lot of what happens politically in Lousiana will depend on what Lieutenant governor Dardenne decides to do.  If he decides to run for the Senate he will make it fairly close and a run for the governor's office would also be competitive.

I expect Louisiana to be heavily polled going into 2014. 

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