Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Eyes turn to Iowa

Public Policy Polling has released their poll results from Iowa on Tuesday, February 5.  What they found is not all that surprising.  Public Policy Polling found that Steve King is the most likely choice for Republican voters in 2014.  King gets a lot of support from the ‘very conservative’ crowd as GOP primary voters who fall into that category favor him 61/19.  Among moderates, King only leads Tom Latham 37-35.  The real problem for King is when he is matched up against a Democratic opponent. 
The most likely Democratic candidate is Bruce Braley, who starts off at an 11 point lead over King.  The other hypothetical matchups for Public Policy Polling have King trailing each of them by at least 7 points.  They ran 16 hypothetical matchups for the Senate race and found that the Democratic candidate lead in 14 of the 16 matchups.  The only exceptions were Latham over Chet Culver and Latham over Dave Loebsack. 
While King is the favorite among Republican primary voters, it’s clear, at least by this poll, that if he secured the nomination that he would start out behind against any Democratic opponent and would face an uphill battle.  The Iowa GOP needs to decide if they should run their favorite candidate or run a more electable candidate in Latham.  While Latham trails to two of the possible Democratic candidates he is not down by as much as King.  If King or another “very” conservative candidate secures the nomination, they will face a steep uphill battle in becoming the next Senator of Iowa.  A more moderate candidate such as Latham doesn’t face as much struggle.  But at this point, we conclude that Iowa is leaning Democratic in their 2014 Senate race.

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