Friday, January 25, 2013

The Main(e) Poll

Public Policy Polling's poll of Maine is up.

Main: In November of 2012, Mane legalized same-sex marriage 53-47%.  So, same-sex marriage is legal there, now.  Often times, opponents of same-sex will talk about the negative impact of it on their own marriage.  Well, Public Policy Polling decided to ask about that.  78% of those polled said that it either has no impact or a positive impact on their life.  Most of it is coming from the "no impact" category (61%).  Typically, those who support gay marriage ask the question, how does it affect your life?  The answer, at least, in Maine is, mainly, it doesn't.  22% of those polled said it has a negative impact.  Despite these numbers of no impact, positive impact, and negative impact, 53% said same-sex marriage should be allowed with 43% saying it shouldn't be allowed.  Is it time for a new argument against same-sex marriage? 

Quick hits (overall): The NRA's approval rating in Maine (42/47).  49% of respondents support Barack Obama's executive actions on guns.  49% trust Barack Obama on guns more than the NRA.  I think that's a bit surprising, but whatever.  Angus King's first approval ratings are in (44/25).  55% support banning assault weapons.  26% of respondents support impeaching President Barack Obama. 

Quick hits (party cross-tabs): 76% of Democrats say same-sex marriage should be allowed.  Whle 75% of Republicans say it shouldn't be.  54% of those who are independent say it should be.  How does it impact you?  Well, 28% of Democrats say it's a positive impact and 63% say it has no impact.  40% of Republicans say it has a negative impact but 57% say it has no impact.  61% of Independents say it has no impact.  79% of Democrats support banning assault weapons and 64% of Republicans oppose it.  The NRA's favorability is strictly along party lines 72% of Republicans have a favorable opinion while 72% of Democrats have an unfavorable view.  50% of Maine Republicans support impeaching Obama.  Surprisingly, 7% of Maine Democrats do. 

Implications: Same-sex marriage arguments that center around if they impact you are going to be won by those who support same-sex marriage, assuming you're using facts.  Public Policy Polling thinks that Susan Collins, who is fairly moderate, might be in trouble before the 2014 election facing a primary challenge by someone who is more to the right.  The data suggests that Republicans in Maine are turning more to the Right.  This might be a challenge for Collins.  Especially, if she passes any bills about guns while she stays in the Senate.

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