Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Texas Two Step

Two of the more prominent politicians from Texas, at least on the national scale, since George W. Bush finished his second term are Rick Perry and Julian Castro. I’ve written, at length, about how Castro needs some more experience before he can fulfill what some Democrats want him to do. Public Policy Polling has some new polls from Texas that show how Castro might fare if he decides to gain some executive experience, maybe at the expense of Rick Perry.

Julian Castro’s favorability numbers indicate that not a lot of people know about him, yet, at least. With nearly half of the respondents not sure of their opinion of him (47%), his approval rating (29/24) might not mean that much. In a hypothetical match-up against one of the most unpopular governors in the country, Rick Perry, Castro does not fare that great. 47% of voters would vote for Perry over Castro while only 42% would vote for Castro. 11% said that they were not sure. Castro fares even worse against Attorney General Greg Abbott. Abbott wins that matchup 46-36 with 18% saying not sure. These are not great numbers for Castro but with almost half of the respondents saying they’re not sure of their own opinion of him, there’s a good chance of improvement. Castro has to get his name out there, if he wants to run for governor, which I don’t think there’s any indication he wants to do. But the governor’s mansion would be a short stop on his way for running for the presidency. This is speculation, of course, but these polls give us an indication of what Castro would have to do to accomplish all of this.
Rick Perry who made a run in 2012 at being the Republican presidential nomination has expressed some interest in running in 2016. We’re not sure if he forgot what happened last time but there are some numbers in Texas that suggest he would be making a mistake in 2016. Only 14% of respondents thought that Perry should run for the presidency in 2016 while 79% were opposed to the idea. Even among his stronger very conservative base, only 20% of them think he should run for the presidency while 67% are opposed. These numbers coupled with the results of his favorability and lack of major support for running for re-election in 2014, we might be seeing the last of Rick Perry in politics.

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