Thursday, January 31, 2013

Scott Brown and the Special Election

Governor Deval Patrick named the interim Senator for Massachusetts to replace John Kerry on Wednesday. He tapped his former Chief of Staff, William ‘Mo’ Cowan, for the role. Cowan has already announced that he does not intend to run for the seat in the special election in June of this year. Scott Brown has not stated whether he intends to run, yet again, for a Senate seat. Brown was defeated in one of the most expensive Senate races in the country by Elizabeth Warren. Two Democratic congressmen have announced, at least, preliminary interest in running for the Senate seat. Those congressmen are Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch. Brown has the full backing of the Republican party, if he decides to run, and will likely not face a primary battle for the spot. 

According to Public Policy Polling, Markey would beat Lynch in their primary battle, Markey leads the polling (52/19). Beyond that, Markey has a higher favorability among Democrats (58/13) than Lynch (27/28). That spells trouble for any chances of Lynch succeeding in the primary, which wouldn’t be too far away. Markey is the much stronger Democratic candidate when it comes to facing Brown, as well. Markey trails 48/45 while Lynch trails 48/39.
Brown has a few options at this point. He can choose to run for the Senate, again. While he is currently leading, it might be hard for him to pick up enough votes over Markey to win the election. Only 17% of current undecideds voted for him in November while 69% voted for Warren. Unless Brown can pick up a lot of those votes, it is unlikely that Brown would get enough to go back to Washington, D.C. Brown has a chance to run for governor, as well. 48% of Republicans would like to see Brown run for governor, instead. Brown would be a much stronger favorite for that office as opposed to the Senate. He’s up by double digit points in each of the match-ups Public Policy Polling put him through. If Brown decides to run for the Senate, there is a very real chance that Brown will not get elected. It is much safer for Brown to run for governor, if he decides he wants to stay in politics. Keep an eye on Brown, who Republicans would certainly back in their quest to get a majority in the Senate in 2014, to see where we might be heading. A decision by Brown to run would seem to indicate that he believes he can pick up the right amount of votes to avoid an embarrassing 2nd defeat in less than a year. A 2nd loss might be hard for Brown to recover from and remove any chances of being elected again.
No matter what happens, 2013 is going to be an interesting year for Massachusetts. It will definitely be looked toward to see if any political changes are in the works and to give us an idea of how 2014 might go, nationally. Actually, I hate when people say that. The 2013 special election will be interesting in its own right and more than likely has no bearing on the 2014 elections.

No comments:

Post a Comment