Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Democratic Presidential Rankings

Ok. I've been on vacation for awhile and been busy.  But I do like doing the Presidential Power Rankings.  So, I'm re-launching them, again.  Redundancy alert.

1. Elizabeth Warren- Kind of an upset pick here.  But, we'll see why she's here, shortly.  Warren, a slightly unlikely, member of the freshman class in the Senate, has won over the hearts of my liberal blogging friends at Crooks and Liars.  I'm 99.7% sure that they have never heard of me.  But, whatever.  But Warren is probably most famous for her Senate race in Massachusetts where the only thing people remember is the controversy surrounding her Native American heritage, or lack thereof.  But what makes liberals like her, has been her efforts to reform the financial industry.  She has bemoaned the repeal of Glass-Steagall and will likely be a key person if there's any financial reform over the next four years.  48% of people do not have an opinion on Warren, at this time.  Even 40% of Barack Obama supporters are not sure of their opinion, yet.  Which, I'll add, the average Democrat in the poll conducted had a 48% not sure favorability with Barack Obama supporters.  Look for Warren to build on her name recognition over the next four years.  If she does that, it's likely she'll be running for the presidency in 2016.

2. Joe Biden- Biden is sticking around here and actually has a very strong argument to be number one.  The fiscal cliff talks where Biden willed President Obama's will into the Senate to get something passed had The Atlantic asking if he was the most influential vice-president in history.  The election of 2012 also highlighted his importance, some have attributed the tone of the election to Biden.  The tone was largely, according to Biden, Osama bin Laden is dead, General Motors is not.  Biden's favorability is 46/44 and it's split almost entirely along party lines, among Barack Obama supporters his favorability is 81/12 and among Mitt Romney supporters it was 8/81.  Or to put it another way, among those who identified as Democrats his favorability was 77/14 and among Republicans it is 15/76.  Among those who are independents, it was 31/56.  The biggest knock against Biden is his age.  He would be among the oldest first-time nominees for President.  The second biggest knock is that he is largely gaffe-ridden when he ran for the 2008 nomination.  Also, The Onion loves him.  It would be amazing for them if he ran.  But his age is going to be a determining factor in him running for the nomination.  There's a good chance Biden retires.

Big gap between 2 and 3.

3. Cory Booker- Booker does not have the experience, at this time, that would be required for him to make an actual run for the presidency.  Beyond that and Google auto-fill of "Cory Booker gay" when you type in his name, he has a strong chance to run for the presidency in 2016.  Seinfeld sums up how I feel about homosexuality.  ANYWAYS, according to some reports President Obama contacted Booker to urge him to explore running for Senate as opposed to running for governor.  The idea is that Booker would do more good by running for Senate, because he has a very high chance of winning, according to Public Policy Polling, as opposed to running against a very popular governor, in Chris Christie.  Booker is expected to run for Senate.  That experience will be very valuable, in the event, that he decides to run in 2016.  Wacky prediction time: Booker is Christie's vice-presidential nomination when he runs in 2016.

4. Andrew Cuomo- Cuomo isn't as exciting as the candidates before him.  His favorability ratings are slightly lower than Warren's, both overall, and with party id involved, too. But he stands with a very good chance of, at least, getting to the primaries.  I think Cuomo will get that far, at least.  Oh well.  Let's move on.

5. Chris Christie- Christie has a better chance running for the Democratic nomination then the others listed below him, at this point.  Christie has kind of been the voice of reason for the Republican party, as of late.  He was influential enough, to still be listed, as a major contributor to Mitt Romney's defeat.  Christie has the 3rd highest favorability numbers among Barack Obama supporters, Democratic party id, and somewhat liberal, among other identifiers.  Christie is very likely to run for president in 2016, but as a Republican.  Still, it would be entertaining if he ran for the Democratic nomination.

6. Hillary Clinton- Although Clinton and her husband are two of the most popular politicians and most favorable politicians in the country, if not the world, it is now even more unlikely that Clinton will run.  Clinton announced her retirement from the Secretary of State position.  The reports of the Benghazi "scandal", even if they're laughable by many, are taken very seriously by those on the right and those viewers of Fox News.  But the biggest thing that has come up, is her concussion, which showed that she had a blood clot in her head.  These health related factors will likely keep her from running for the presidency in 2016.  And shows why older people are not likely to be chosen to be a first time candidate.

7. Julian Castro- inexperienced, too young, etc. He is the exciting candidate.  But this doesn't mean he'll actually run.  Still, have to mention him.

8. Deval Patrick- Governor of Massachusetts.  His favorability, overall, is 10/17.  Pretty much no one has heard of him.  If he wants to run in 2016, he'll have to get his name out there more.  At this point, I'm more likely to be right by drawing a random name out of a hat.

9. Michael Bloomberg- a Mayor who's tough on climate change and gun control?  Sounds like a liberal to me.  He's actually a rich, independent, who likes to flex his muscles on the issues he thinks is most important.  But he probably has no intention to run for president, I'd imagine.

10. Marin O'Malley- I had O'Malley higher on most of my lists before.  But, here's the deal.  His favorability is 5/17.  And is basically the same among Barack Obama supporters (8/18) or among Democratic party members (7/18).  His name recognition needs to improve substantially, in order for him to be taken seriously as a potential candidate.  The bad news is that his favorability numbers don't look like they're going to improve much even when the not sure people come around.

No comments:

Post a Comment