Saturday, December 8, 2012

Just a few thoughts

I have a few thoughts that are not quite long enough to generate posts but are just a few things that I've been thinking about the last few weeks.

1. I still think that the Republican party is headed for a major transformation.  Based on the polls before and after the election, it shows how people are leaning towards the left on social issues, such as gay marriage, legalization of marijuana, etc.  A lot of the people who are further on the right than the majority of the Republican party would never go for leaning towards the middle.  Instead, they are separating.  A lot of people who are Tea Partiers are calling long-standing Republicans RiNOs, for letting some Bush tax cuts to expire or raising the debt ceiling, etc.

1a. So, the Republican Party can move to the middle and leave the Tea Party behind.
1b. The Republican Party can stay on the fringes of the Right.
1c. The Republican Party can do nothing and effectively leave the Tea Party behind.

That's pretty much it.  They haven't done very well in articulating what they want to accomplish.  Right now, the focus is still on Obama.  This type of focus which was evident in 2012 was that whoever they run, it'll be better than Obama.  Romney constantly found himself opposing Obama on every issue, possible.  That's been the focus of the Party itself, too.  The Republican Party needs to, at some point, focus on the future.  Barack Obama will only be President for four more years.  The loyalty from the Right is basically only there because they're unified to beat Obama or oppose him.  What's going to happen when Obama steps down in 2016? 

2. Paul Ryan is done with national elections.  He may show up in the Republican presidential primaries but his favorability numbers are almost filled at this point.  It's almost impossible to change someone's opinion of you in a large scale.  Barack Obama's favorability fluctuates a bit but it doesn't even fluctuate that much and he's at near 100% on the favorability numbers.

3. The more I think about the 2012 election the more I think Romney didn't have the right strategist leading his campaign.  In a state/local election, you win by energizing your base and making inroads into demographic groups that you typically lose or into areas you typically lose.  For example, if you're running for governor and you're a Democrat.  The state is 40/40 on terms of party id.  So, then you look at where you can make the biggest catch-up.  Say you're down 75-25 in a particular city.  If you can make that a little bit closer, then you stand a better chance of winning the election.  That's what Romney essentially did.  I noted earlier that Romney's strategy was somewhat smart because it might make a big impact in swing states.  But he made the inroads with the black vote but it didn't help because in states that had larger minority populations, he lost.  He made the popular vote closer but we still have an electoral college.

4. We're becoming more partisan than ever.  It's not a good thing.  It's a dumb thing.

5. At the same time, we're getting closer to a point where parties might be able to split into smaller groups.  I think the social issues might be the driving force behind these splits.

6. I really want to launch the Up, Simba Project.  Which is the next step for me.

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