Friday, November 16, 2012

Exit Polls: When did you decide to vote

There is a prevailing idea that running for President means you have to be stong up until the very end.  But, at least in the last two presidential elections this probably isn't true. 

Today (3%): This actually went down 1% from 2008.  In 2008, it was 4%.  Barack Obama won the people who decided the day of the election in both times.  In 2008, Obama won 50-45.  In 2012, Obama won the same category 51-44.  5% of this category gave no answer or answered with other.  It would be interesting to see if it's because they voted for other or it's because they may not remember who they voted for.

Last few days (6%): In 2008, they didn't list this as a choice.  But they listed last three days and in the last week.  McCain actually won those categories with last three days 52-47 and last week 50-48.  Obama actually won the last few days in 2012 50-45 with 5% saying other or no answer.  There's the idea that Hurricane Sandy played a role in the election probably coming to fruition.  But those deciding in the last few days to a week are the same as 2008.

In October (11%): Obama did well with voters who decided in October in 2008 winning it 54-45 but in 2012, he only won it 49-48. This overall number went down by 4% since 2008.

In September (9%): The overall number who said they decided that they made up their mind in September went down by 5%.  Romney did very well with voters who made their decision in September.  Obama won in 2008 54-45.  Romney won in 2012 53-45.  That is huge.  This probably has to do with Benghazi and the attacks on the Embassy.

Before that (69%): This percentage went up by 9% from 2008.  Obama won this category in 2008 52-47.  In 2012, Obama won 53-46.  Basically what we're saying is that by August 31st nearly 70% of the electorate has already decided who they would vote for.  70% already decided and the slight majority favored Obama by that point.  The idea that this was a close race, is wishful thinking by people.

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