Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Exit polls: Religion

Vote by church attendance.  This is always an interesting category to look at for me.

Never (17%): Surprisingly, a pretty big swing here.  In 2008, Obama won this category 67-30.  In 2012, Romney made up ground, Obama lost a ton of ground.  Obama won the category 62-34.  There was a 1% increase in the amount of people saying other/no answer.  Interesting.

A few times a year (27%): Romney made up ground here.  Obama won the category 59-39 in 2008 and in 2012 he won the category 56-42.  I'm assuming that we'll see it be more stable as church attendance goes up.  But we'll see.

Monthly (13%): Starting to see it become more stable.  Only changing 2%. But a surprising switch. Obama won 2008 the category in 2008 53-46 but in 2012 Obama widened the gap and got it up to 55-44.  This is interesting, to me.

Weekly (28%): This is getting to the Republican stronghold.  In 2008, McCain won 55-43.  In 2012, Romney widened the gap to 58-41. 

More than weekly (14%): I was dead wrong about it being stable.  In 2008, McCain won the category 55-43 but Romney dominated this category and stretched it to 63-36.  This is probably why I thought it was more religiously charged then it looked like, initially.

CNN breaks it down another way.

Never (17%): See above.

Occasionally (40%): Obama won this category in 2008 57-42.  In 2012, this changed slightly to Obama winning 55-43.  So not a big swing. But something interesting.

Weekly (42%): Pretty big change as we can guess from the above data. McCain won this category 55-43 in 2008 and Romney stretched this lead to 59-39 in 2012.  So, fairly big change. 

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