Sunday, November 11, 2012

Exit Polls: Race

Be prepared to read information about exit polls. Nothing really exciting.

White voters (72% of exit polls), overall, favored Romney 59-39.  Public Policy Polling tweeted during their release of their final polls that Romney needed to win the white vote, by at least 20 points in swing states to have a chance of winning the election.  In 2008, McCain won the white vote 55-43.  So, Romney gained points with the white vote from 2008.  But where is this lead coming from, so we can break it down by gender or age.  White male voters, overall, supported Romney 62-35 which is basically Romney gaining five points since 2008.  White women also supported Romney more than they did McCain, gaining 3 points, from 53 to 56.  I guess it's helpful to look at it that way.  But maybe there's an explanation found in the age groups.  White 18-29 year olds supported Obama in 2008 54-44 and in 2012 that switched to Romney 51-44.  That's a huge swing for Romney.  It's actually the biggest one we've seen so far.  White voters 30-39 were not included in CNN's exit polls of 2012.  They only listed 39-44 which is not included in the 2008 exit poll data, by itself.  Whites aged 45-64 supported McCain in 2008 56-42.  In 2012, Romney gained a significant edge and got up to 61.  Obama fell to 38.  White seniors (65+) gave three points to Romney in 2012. The biggest gain for Romney in white voters was with younger voters. 

Black voters (13% of exit polls), heavily supported Obama 93-6.  Which is down slightly from 2008, 95-4 Obama in 2008.  Black men's support for Obama heavily declined from 2008 to 2012.  In 2008, black men went for Obama 95-4 and in 2012, it ws 87-11.  Black women stayed the exact same in their support for Obama from 2008 to 2012.  Young black voters, declined from 95-4 in 2008 (in favor of Obama) to 91-8 in 2012.  Black voters aged 45-64 declined slightly in their support of Obama from 2008 to 2012.  Black seniors stayed the same.

Latino voters (10%), increased their support of Obama from 2008 to 2012.  Obama gained a total of 4 points in the Latino vote.  Latino women was a huge swing for Obama from 2008 to 2012.  Obama gained 8 points in that category (from 68 to 76).  Latino men were essentially the same.  Continuing the trend of 18-29 year olds losing support for Obama from 2008 to 2012 by losing two points with them.  But geez, Obama picked up a lot of support with Latinos aged 45-64 going from 58 to 68.  Latino seniors slightly declined their support of Obama from 2008 by three points.

I'm going to expand in later posts about certain demographics that changed 5 or more points from 2008-2012.

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