Monday, November 12, 2012

Exit polls: Ideology and Party ID

So, the three ideologies that CNN uses is liberal, moderate, and conservative.  The Party ID's that they use are Democratic, Republican, and Independent.  Again, I'll expand later on swings in demographics by 5 or more points.

So, those who identified themselves as liberal in 2008 went 89-10 for Obama over McCain with only 1% saying other or did not answer.  In 2012, liberals went 86-11 for Obama over Romney with 3% saying other or did not answer.  Those who identified themselves as Democratic went for Obama 89-10 over McCain.  In 2012, Obama got 92% of the votes from those who identify as Democratic and Romney fell to 7%. 

Those who identify themselves as moderates supported Obama in 2008 60-39.  This declined in 2012 from 60 to 56 and the number of people who stated other or no answer went from 1% to 3%.  Those who identify themselves as independent supported Obama in 2008 52-44 with a whopping 4% saying other or no answer.  In 2012, those who identified themselves as independents did a huge swing for Romney, where he lead with independents 50-45.  5% of independents said other or gave no answer.  This is a huge swing for Romney. I'll go over this when I expand on these things but typically you would assume that those who identify themselves as moderate would also identify themselves as independents but it doesn't seem to match up with the statistics if 56% of moderates voting for Obama but 50% of independents are voting for Romney.  Just something interesting to think about.

Are we getting more partisan as a country?  I would really like to expand on this at some point.  In 2008, those who identified themselves as Conservative supported McCain 78-20 with 2% going with other/no answer.  In 2012, those who identified themselves as Conservative voted for Romney 82-17 with 1% saying other/no answer.  Those who identified themselves as Republican supported McCain 90-9.  This increased for Romney to 92 in 2012. 

Just so you know, those who identified themselves as liberal went up by 3 from 2008 to 2012.  Moderates went down 3% and Conservatives went up by 1% in the same timeframe.  But those who say they're Democratic went down by 1%, Republicans stayed the same, and Independents went up by 1%.

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