Monday, September 24, 2012

2008 and 2012

Nate Silver noted in one of his more recent posts that when we look at polls, it's important not to look at just one poll but a slew of the polls and see what the totality of the polls are indicating.  Despite this sound advice, I'm looking at something different today.  I'm using Gallup's poll, found here.   I'm also using the numbers found in a journal aticle by Henry C. Kenski and Kate M. Kenski called "Explaining the Vote in the Election of 2008" found in the book The 2008 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective.  What we're looking at, is a comparison in key areas.  I'll try to do more of an analysis of it tomorrow, or so.

We're using the most recent Gallup poll, that I can find.  I'll be separating the two choices as R and D, R representing Republican and D representing Democrat.  The number in parantheses next to 2008 is the percentage of the total vote in 2008.

All:
2008
R: 46
D: 53

2012
R: 45
D: 48

Men:
2008 (47%)
R: 49
D: 48

2012
R: 49
D: 44

Women:
2008 (53%)
R: 43
D: 56

2012
R: 42
D: 52

White:
2008 (74%)
R: 55
D: 43

2012
R: 54
D: 40

Black:
2008 (13%)
R: 4
D: 95

2012
R: 5
D: 89

Hispanic
2008 (9%)
R: 31
D: 67

2012
R: 26
D: 66

18-29
2008 (18%)
R: 32
D: 66

2012
R:33
D: 59

My data does not agree on the other age groups, as one breaks it down 30-44, while Gallup does 30-49.  So I would not be able to include it, with any accuracy.

Married
2008 (66%)
R: 52
D: 47

2012
R:  53
D: 41

Unmarried
2008 (34%)
R: 33
D: 65

2012
R: 34
D: 58

Protestant
2008 (54%)
R: 54
D: 45

2012
R: 53
D: 41

Catholic
2008 (27%)
R: 45
D: 54

2012
R: 44
D: 49

Democrats
2008 (39%)
R: 10
D: 89

2012
R: 5
D: 92

Independents
2008 (29%)
R:  44
D: 52

2012
R: 44
D: 43

Republicans
2008 (32%)
R: 90
D: 9

2012
R: 92
D: 5

Liberal
2008 (22%)
R: 89
D: 10

2012
R: 11
D: 86

Moderate
2008 (44%)
R: 39
D: 60

2012
R: 33
D: 58

Conservative (34%)
R: 78
D: 20

2012
R: 78
D: 18


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